#1 2019-08-14 07:46:33

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We take a look at the current crop of NFL QBs and wonder which QBs have more good games than others and which stink it up more than others." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteBlogging The BoysBlogging The Boys Womens Antwaun Woods 2019 Jersey , a Dallas Cowboys fan communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsLibraryCowboysOddsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Dallas Cowboys NewsFiled under:Dallas Cowboys GeneralRanking NFL QBs by Total QBR tells us more about what the Cowboys should pay Dak PrescottNew,356commentsWe take a look at the current crop of NFL QBs and wonder which QBs have more good games than others and which stink it up more than others.CDTShareTweetShareShareRanking NFL QBs by Total QBR tells us more about what the Cowboys should pay Dak PrescottPhoto by Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesLast week, we took a look at the number of games in which currently active NFL QBs recorded a passer rating of 100 or more and then looked at their 100+ rating games as a percentage of games started.We saw that Dak Prescott looked a lot better than many expected, while other QBs looked worse than many expected, prompting questions about whether the stats had been cherry-picked to make Prescott look good, about whether passer rating was a valid stat at all, and about whether any stat showing Prescott in a positive light was automatically a fake stat. So today, as promised in the original article, we’re going to look at an EPA-based metric to see how today’s NFL QBs hold up under an advanced stats microscope, both in terms of good-game and bad-game percentage.To do that, we turn to ESPN’s Total QBR.The trusty NFL passer rating was designed to evaluate the passing game only. It does not account for a quarterback’s running game, his ability generate first downs, the amount of sacks he takes, penalties, garbage time stats, and many other things. ESPN’s QBR is an attempt to fix some of the weaknesses of the traditional passer rating. ESPN’s Sharon Katz and Brian Burke (formerly of Advanced NFL Stats) explain the concept:ESPN’s Total QBR includes a lot more than the traditional boxscore stats, and instead tries to include all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Total QBR, much like the Expected Points concept, looks at every single play, adds context (e.g. down-and-distance Cheap Deonte Thompson Youth Jersey , score differential, win probability etc.) and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammates to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. The metric is expressed as a number on a 0-to-100 scale to produce a player’s Total QBR. In the tables further down this post I look at 42 NFL quarterbacks and the games they played between 2016 and 2018. In games in which those 42 QBs had at least 10 pass attempts and posted a QBR of 75 or higher, they are a combined 292-77-1 for a win percentage of .793, which is pretty close to the 75 percent ESPN talks about above.If we accept that a Total QBR of 75 or more denotes a good game by the QB, it follows that a QB with a lot of 75+ QBR games is a good quarterback. Similarly, if we look at the games in our sample with a Total QBR below 40, those 42 QBs combined for an 84-266-4 record, a measly .246 win percentage or about 25 percent.It follows that if a Total QBR above 75 is a good game, a Total QBR below 40 is a bad game. And with all that out of the way, here’s a look at the 24 NFL QBs with at least 30 starts since 2016 along with their “Good game percentage” (Games with a Total QBR above 75 as a percentage of total games started). We’ll look at the QBs with less than 30 starts a little further down this post.75+ QBRGames (click on column headers to sort)QBs with 30+ startsGames with Total QBR > 75 (min 10 PA)Games Started (min 10 PA)Good game percentage (QBR >75 % of total games started)TotalWLT If you sort the table by “Good Game Percentage” you’ll see Tom Brady and Drew Brees lead all other QBs over the last three years by quite a big margin, as they should. Brady and Brees are easily the two best QBs over the last three years and the only two QBs truly deserving of the word “elite”. Behind Brady and Brees there is a second tier of QBs who are not at the same level as Brady and Brees but stand out against the rest of their peers by a significant margin. This tier includes Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Russell Wilson, and may extend to include Philip Rivers, depending on where you feel the cutoff point should be for that second tier. If you want a quarterback that can win games for your team, with his arms, with his feet, with his late-game heroics, or in any other manner, these are the guys for you.The third tier includes QBs that have an above average good game percentage (the 42 QB average is 29.3%). It includes Alex Smith, Andrew Luck Dalton Schultz Jersey Stitched , Aaron Rodgers (remember this is only about the last three years), Matthew Stafford, and Jameis Winston. The rest is a list of below-average QBs that have a progressively worse good-game percentages. Some of them are close enough to the average (Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota) that there is hope they can put one or two bad seasons behind them and move up the ranks, others like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are simply bus drivers who are carried by their team more than they carry their teams.On to the mostly younger QBs with less than 30 starts over the last three years. I felt that the small sample size could possibly distort the overall picture, which is why I’m listing them separately. QBs with <30 startsGames with Total QBR > 75 (min 10 PA)Games Started (min 10 PA)Good game percentage (QBR >75 % of total games started)TotalWLTSticking to the logic of the tiers we used above, Patrick Mahomes is a clear standout here, and his second year in the league rivaled and maybe even surpassed anything we’ve seen in the league so far. But can he keep it up?Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen look like they could potentially be tier two QBs, but they too have a lot more games to play.Tier three has four above average QBs in Nick Foles, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Jimmy Garoppolo, but beware the small sample sizes. Mayfield and Darnold at least have youth on their side, so their arrow may be pointing up, but nobody really knows what to expect from Foles and Garoppolo except for their financial advisors. Beyond that, we have a bunch of below average QBs, most of whom have already been relegates to backup duty.“So,” some might say, “Dak has had some good games. But my eye test tells me he’s had some bad games. Why are we not looking at those?”Every QB has bad games. But some QBs stink it up more than others, even if you only have eyes for Dak Prescott. So here’s the same exercise as above, except with games with a QBR below 40. We’ll start off with the 24 QBs with more than 30 starts again, though this time a low “Bad-game percentage” is what you are looking for.QBs with 30+ startsGames with Total QBR <40 (min 10 PA)Games Started (min 10 PA)Bad game percentage(QBR < 40 in % of total games started)TotalWLT If you sort the table by “Bad Game Percentage” you’ll see a first tier of QBs (Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan Youth Mike White Jersey , Aaron Rodgers) that simply don’t have a lot of stinkers on their ledger, which means their performance very rarely is the reason the team loses. That does not automatically make them elite QBs, but the numbers here suggests they minimize their errors and bad plays and consistently keep their teams in the game, losing efforts notwithstanding.The second tier here consists of Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, and Kirk Cousins.The third tier are still above average QBs (42-QB average is 27.5%), but the have about twice as many stinkers per season as the top guys in the league. It’s a small list with Drew Brees, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Russell Wilson.The rest is once again a list of below-average QBs that have a progressively worse bad-game percentages. One thing of note here are the W/L records in these bad games. Guys like Dak Prescott (0-7 in sub 40 QBR games), Matthew Stafford (0-8), Jameis Winston (0-9), or Derek Carr (1-12) have really bad win percentages in these games. Others, like Cam Newton (7-9), Tom Brady (3-4), Drew Brees or Kirk Cousins (both 3-6), have much better win percentages, which suggests their teams are better able to overcome a bad day by the QB, whereas the QBs in the first group seem to play on teams that are unable to bail them out on a bad day.On to the players with less than 30 starts Mike White Jersey Stitched , same procedure as above.QBs with <30 startsGames with Total QBR <40 (min 10 PA)Games Started (min 10 PA)Bad game percentage(QBR <40 in % of total games startedTotalWLTHard to believe, but Patrick Mahomes has not had a game with a QBR below 40 in his short career. The rest of the players listed are more or less similarly ranked as they were in the previous table.In principle, you want a QB who doesn’t cost you too many games (and ideally wins a few games for you too). Posting a QBR below 40 is a good way to lose games, even if you have a team that can bail you out on occasion with a good running game, a strong defense, or a big-play special teams unit.And if you want to be a top QB in this league (and be paid like it), it’s not enough to have a bunch of 75+ QBR games that give your team a good chance to win. It’s at least equally important to minimize the number of bad games in which QBs actively lose games for their teams.Over 47 games (with min 10 pass attempts), Prescott had 18 75+ QBR games. Only three of his peers have a better good-game percentage. And he’s had just seven sub-40 QBR games. Only four of his peers have a lower bad-game percentage. That smells like a pretty big contract. Chris Carson dished out punishing runs. Russell Wilson made smart, decisive throws at key moments. A defense led by Bobby Wagner and an unhappy Earl Thomas forced turnovers, making Dak Prescott and Dallas look meager trying to move the ball.The Seattle Seahawks returned to a familiar, old formula to avoid a dreaded 0-3 start, beating the Cowboys 24-13 on Sunday."This is how we want to play. We couldn't be any more specific about it," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said.Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the first half, Carson added a 5-yard TD run in early in the fourth quarter and the Seahawks won their 10th straight home opener. Wilson hit Jaron Brown on an 16-yard touchdown early in the second quarter, and later hit Tyler Lockett streaking up the sideline on a 52-yard scoring pass, and Seattle (1-2) built a 17-3 halftime lead and cruised past the Cowboys.The duo of Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott didn't have the answers against a Seattle defense that had Thomas on the field and welcomed back Wagner after the Seahawks' defensive leader missed Week 2 with a groin injury.Prescott was intercepted twice by Thomas , including with 3:09 remaining at the Seattle 15 on a deflected pass, with Thomas bowing to the Dallas sideline at the end of the play. It was Thomas' way of acknowledging the Cowboys should have done more by now to try to acquire him from the Seahawks after the former All-Pro made it clear he wanted out of Seattle if a contract extension wasn't coming."I felt like that was just in the moment and if they were going to trade for me and extend me, they should have did it," Thomas said of his bow that drew a 15-yard penalty.Prescott was sacked five times and Dallas (1-2) had just 58 net yards passing entering the fourth quarter. Elliott had momentary flashes, busting off a few long runs, but they were too infrequent for Dallas' stagnant offense.Thomas' second interception was one of two turnovers forced by Seattle in the fourth quarter. Elliott broke free for a 26-yard run to the Seattle 19 earlier in the quarter, but had the ball punched free from behind by Bradley McDougald and recovered by the Seahawks."When you've got that ball in your hand Youth Taco Charlton Jersey , that's the team in our hand," Elliott said. "Me being a leader on the team, I've got to do a better job of taking care of the ball. I mean, that cost us the game."Prescott finished 19 of 34 for 168 yards and a 3-yard shovel pass TD to Tavon Austin with 7:11 remaining. Dallas failed to pass for 200 yards for the ninth time in the past 11 games dating to last season. Elliott had 127 yards on 16 carries."We've got to find exactly our go-to in the passing game — and not necessarily am I speaking on a player," Prescott said. "I'm just speaking on our go-to concepts or go-to beaters or whatever it may be that we didn't get to."Meanwhile, Wilson had the kind of protection that's been absent most of the season. After being sacked 12 times in the first two games, Wilson was 16 of 26 for 192 yards and sacked twice by Dallas' defense that was second in the league in sacks. Despite missing starting center Justin Britt, the offensive line gave Wilson enough time for a few big plays in the passing game.Wilson's strike to Brown gave Seattle a 7-0 lead and he took advantage of the absence of safety Jeff Heath when he found Lockett on a 52-yard TD late in the second quarter. Heath departed with a left ankle injury earlier in the drive and Wilson found Lockett streaking up the sideline. Heath's replacement, Kavon Frazier, was late to rotate over and Lockett went untouched, high-stepping the final few yards for a 14-3 lead.Carson's TD run was the first by a Seahawks running back since J.D. McKissic found the end zone on a 31-yard run in Week 4 of the 2017 season. Seattle went 14 games without a running back finding the end zone until Carson bulled his way in with 12:54 remaining.Carson finished with 102 yards, the first Seattle running back to top 100 yards since late in the 2016 season."This is the offense we claimed to be the whole offseason," Carson said.THOMAS DRAMAFollowing a week of drama surrounding Thomas, the former All-Pro safety started and almost immediately made his presence known. Thomas missed two days of practice for personal reasons which Carroll provided only vague answers as to why, and left open the possibility Thomas wouldn't play.He was on the field as usual, and it took less than a quarter before Thomas was making a remarkable interception, pinning a deflected pass against his shin. It was the second two-interception game of his career and the first since his rookie season in 2010.FREE POINTSSeattle was gifted three points at the end of the half when Randy Gregory was baited into a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, smacking Seattle's Joey Hunt in the facemask. The penalty put Seattle in range for Sebastian Janikowski's 47-yard field goal and a 17-3 lead at the half.INJURIESDallas also played a large portion of the second half without linebacker Sean Lee due to a hamstring injury. Lee said it was the same issue that had him listed as questionable on the injury report."It feels like the same deal, but I have to get (evaluated) and see where I'm at," Lee said.UP NEXTCowboys: returns home to host Detroit next Sunday.Seahawks: at division rival Arizona next Sunday.

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